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Results from special questions included in the recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reveal that homebuilders expect a mix of demographic, economic, and technological forces to significantly influence the long-term health of the homebuilding industry and housing demand over the next decade.

Builders were asked to assess the long-term impact of 14 major trends and forces. Among the factors expected to have a strong or somewhat negative impact on housing demand and industry conditions over the next 10 years, respondents cited:  

Government debt levels: 82%

Declining fertility rate: 78%

Long-term inflation outlook: 70%

Declining marriage rate: 67%

Energy costs: 61%

At the same time, builders identified several forces they expect to have a positive impact on the health of the homebuilding industry and housing demand, led by structural and technological shifts:

Aging housing stock: 73%

Work-from-home trends: 65%

Artificial intelligence: 52%

Modular and panelized construction: 45%

Aging population: 39%

“Builders are clearly thinking beyond the short-term outlook and are focusing on the forces that will shape housing demand for years to come,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While long-term demographic trends and fiscal pressures are viewed as headwinds, builders also see meaningful opportunities tied to an aging housing stock, evolving work patterns, and emerging technologies that can offer growth opportunities and improve productivity and affordability.”

Full survey results can be found here. 

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is a Washington-based trade association representing more than 140,000 members involved in homebuilding, remodeling, multifamily construction, property management, subcontracting, design, housing finance, building product manufacturing, and other aspects of residential and light commercial construction. NAHB is affiliated with 700 state and local homebuilders associations around the country. NAHB’s builder members will construct about 80% of the new housing units projected for this year.